The Senate

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Senate candidates

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New South Wales

Victoria

Queensland

Western Australia

South Australia

Tasmania

Australian Capital Territory

Northern Territory

National outlook

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At the election due in 2022, the Senators elected for six-year terms at the double dissolution election of 2016 will face re-election. These include most of the senior Senators on both sides: Senators Abetz, Birmingham, Cash, McKenzie and Payne on the Coalition side, and Senators Carr, Farrell, Keneally and Wong on the Labor side. The four Territory Senators, who are elected for three-year terms, are also up for re-election.

The Liberal National Coalition currently has 36 seats in the Senate, of whom 17 are up for re-election in 2022. Labor has 26 seats, with 13 up for re-election. (Both these figures include the Territory Senators.) The Greens have nine, with three up for re-election. There are currently five cross-bench Senators, of who three are up for re-election. The Coalition thus needs to gain three seats to win 39 seats, which is a majority. Labor needs to gain an impossible 12 seats (Labor has not had a majority in the Senate since 1951). But Labor and the Greens taken together have 35 seats, and need a gain of four seats for a majority.

If the 2019 results were to be exactly repeated, Labor would lose seats to the Greens in NSW and Qld. The two cross-benchers in SA would lose their seats, one to the Liberals and one to the Greens. But Senator Jacqui Lambie's party would not win a seat in Tasmania, as she did in 2019. The result (counting the Territory Senators) would therefore be Coalition 20, Labor 13, Greens six, One Nation one, giving a total Senate position of Coalition 37, Labor 24, Greens 12, One Nation two, Senator Lambie one. The Coalition plus One Nation would therefore have a Senate majority of 39 to 36, with Senator Lambie holding the remaining seat.

To prevent this happening, Labor and the Greens between them must gain four seats. The Greens seem certain to gain a seat from the cross-bench in South Australia. The other three gains must come from the Coalition or One Nation. This means winning three seats out of six in Queensland, and four out of six in two other states. That would produce a Senate with 39 Labor and Greens, 36 Coalition and One Nation, plus Senator Lambie. If the Labor-Greens combination were to gain between one and three seats, One Nation and Senator Lambie would continue to hold the balance.

This will be the second half-Senate election since the 2016 reforms to the Senate election system. The changes abolished the automatic allocation of preferences by parties, and allowed voters to cast a valid Senate vote by indicating a limited number of preferences either above or below the line. This made it much harder for minor party candidates to be elected. At the 2019 election, although all six Greens Senators were re-elected, only two cross-benchers survived: Malcolm Roberts (One Nation, Qld) and Jacquie Lambie (Independent, Tas).

At this election, three Greens Senators will be facing re-election (In Vic, WA and Tas). It seems likely they will all be re-elected. The Greens are also likely to win seats in NSW, Qld and SA, giving them 12 seats, the maximum possible at their level of support. Senators Stirling Griff and Rex Patrick, cross-bench Senators from SA elected as part of the Nick Xenophon Team in 2016, are certain to lose their seats. It is possible that former Senator Xenophon will succeed in his attempted comeback. If he does, it will probably be at the expense of the third member of the Liberal ticket, or else of the Greens.

Go to the Guide to the House of Representatives election

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