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| Adam Carr's Election Archive
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Australian federal election, 2022
Division of Bruce, Victoria
Named for: Rt Hon Stanley Bruce (Viscount Bruce) (1883-1967), federal
MP 1918-29, 1931-33, Prime Minister 1923-29
Eastern Melbourne: Dandenong, Doveton, Endeavour Hills, Hallam, Narre Warren
State seats: Parts of
Dandenong,
Gembrook,
Mulgrave,
Narre Warren North and
Narre Warren South
Local government areas: Parts of
Casey,
Greater Dandenong and
Monash
Borders with:
Aston,
Casey,
Chisholm,
Holt,
Hotham,
Isaacs and
La Trobe
Enrolment at 2019 election: 109,213
Enrolment at 2022 election: 112,896 (+03.4)
1999 republic referendum: Yes 54.5
2018 same-sex marriage survey: No 53.1
Sitting member: Julian Hill
(Labor): Elected 2016, 2019
2007 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.3%
2010 Labor majority over Liberal: 8.1%
2013 Labor majority over Liberal: 1.8%
2016 Labor majority over Liberal: 4.1%
2019 Labor majority over Liberal: 14.1%
2022 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 7.3%
Liberal two-party vote 1983-2019
Status: Marginal Labor
Best Labor booths, two-party vote: Cleeland (75.7), Dandenong West (74.8), Doveton (73.0), Wooranna Park (72.4),
Hallam (67.5)
Best Liberal booths, two-party vote: Harkaway (65.1), Narre Warren North (64.5), Berwick PPVC (49.2), Rosewood Downs
(45.1), Thomas Mitchell (43.5)
2019 results
Statistics and history
Candidates in ballot-paper order:
 |
 |
 |
 |
1. Christine Skrobo
Liberal Democrats |
2. Matt Babet
United Australia Party |
3. Hayley Deans
Pauline Hanson's One Nation |
4. Julian Hill
Australian Labor Party |
 |
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5. James Moody
Liberal Party |
6. Matthew Kirwan
Australian Greens |
Candidate websites:
Matt Babet
Julian Hill
Matthew Kirwan
James Moody
Christine Skrobo
Division of Bruce
Bruce was created in 1955, in Melbourne's fast-growing eastern suburbs: at that time it covered the whole outer
eastern suburban area, and by 1966 had over 100,000 voters - unheard-of at that time. In 1969 it was cut back to a
block of suburbs based on Glen Waverley, and on those boundaries it was a fairly safe Liberal seat, although Labor
nearly won it in 1983. The 1996 redistribution, however, moved the seat south to take in the industrial area around
Dandenong, which made it a marginal Labor seat, although it still had a higher than average median income level.
The 2018 redistribution radically changed the seat, cutting out all its Liberal-voting areas and adding
Labor territory from
Holt,
Hotham and
Isaacs
(weakening all three of those seats for Labor). This based
the seat on the Dandenong-Springvale corridor and made it a very safe Labor seat, with no territory in common
with the seat as it existed on its 1969 boundaries.
The first member for Bruce was
Sir Billy Snedden, who was Liberal Treasurer, Leader of the Opposition and Speaker of the
House.
Alan Griffin won the seat for Labor in 1996 after a favourable redistribution and held it for 20 years,
although he was run close in 2013. He was a minister in the Rudd-Gillard government and retired in 2016.
The lucky beneficiary of the 2018 redistribution was Griffin's former staffer and chosen successor, Julian Hill,
Labor MP for Bruce since 2016. Hill held senior positions in the Victorian public service and was a City of Port
Phillip Councillor and the city's youngest Mayor. He is openly gay. The Liberals made a serious bid for Bruce in 2016,
but Hill was not troubled in 2019.
The 2021 redistribution shifted the seat again, moving it east into more marginal territory around Narre Warren
and Berwick, and cutting out the Labor strongholds of Noble Park and Springvale. On these boundaries Bruce closely
resembles the old seat of Holt, which is now based on Cranbourne. The Liberal candidate is James Moody, a staffer for
Jason Wood MP. The Greens candidate is Matthew Kirwan, digital equity
officer with the City of Casey and a former councillor with the City of Greater Dandenong.
Demographics:
Bruce was so radically changed by the 2018 redistribution that the ABS demographic data were no longer useable. These
data are for the City of Greater Dandenong, which covers much of the same territory.
Median weekly household income: $1,168 (Australia $1,438)
People over 65: 14.4% (Australia 15.8%)
Australian born: 40.2% (Australia 66.7%)
Ancestry: Chinese 9.5%, Vietnamese 9.3%, Indian 6.9%
Non-English-speaking households: 64.5% (Australia 22.2%)
Catholics 19.9% (Australia 22.6%)
Muslim 12.5%
No religion 16.9% (Australia 29.6%)
University graduates: 16.5% (Australia 22.0%)
Professional and managerial employment: 21.2% (Australia 35.2%)
Employed in manufacturing and construction: 30.4% (Australia 22.9%)
Paying a mortgage: 30.2% (Australia 34.5%)
Renting: 34.9% (Australia 30.9%)
Traditional families: 38.8% (Australia 32.8%)
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