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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Paterson, New South Wales
North central New South Wales: Kurri Kurri, Maitland, Nelson Bay, Raymond Terrace
Sitting member: Hon Bob Baldwin (Liberal), elected 1996, defeated 1998, elected 2001. Retiring 2016
Enrolment at close of rolls: 112,575
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 9.8%
2016 Notional Labor majority over Liberal: 0.4%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Graham Burston
One Nation |
2. Brian Clare
Rise Up Australia |
3. John Brown
Australian Greens |
4. Meryl Swanson
Australian Labor Party |
5. Peter Davis
Citizens Electoral Council |
6. Karen Howard
Liberal Party |
7. Peter Arena
Christian Democrats |
2013 results
Statistics and history
Paterson was created in 1949, based on Maitland and the more rural parts of the Hunter region. It was usually a safe Liberal or Country Party seat,
although Labor came close in 1972 and 1974. The seat was abolished in 1984, but reincarnated on much the same boundaries in 1993. Like most regional
seats, Paterson has a low level of median family income, a low proportion of people in professional occupations and a low proportion of people born
in non English speaking countries. Its ageing population is shown by its high level of people over 65 and its low level of families with dependent
children.
Bob Baldwin, Liberal MP for Paterson from 1996 to 1998 and since 2001, won Paterson for the Liberals in 1996, lost it to Bob Horne in 1998 and regained
it in 2001. He had a close call in 2007 but recorded solid swings in his favour in 2010 and 2013. He was a company director and marketing manager before
his first election. He was a Parliamentary Secretary in both the Howard and Abbott Governments, but was dropped by Malcolm Turnbull in 2015. In April
2016 Baldwin announced that he would retire at the election.
The 2016 redistribution has radically changed this seat, cutting out all the rural areas and adding Labor-voting territory from Hunter and Newcastle,
particularly the Labor bastion of Kurri Kurri, plus all of Maitland, which was previously divided between Paterson and Hunter. What Liberal strength
remains is in the Port Stephens area, which has many affluent residents and retirees. The result has been turn a Liberal majority of 9.8% into a Labor
majority of 0.4%. Sitting members have often overcome small post-redistribution deficits like this, but only if the overall situation is favourable.
Baldwin had a substantial personal vote, and his retirement will make it very difficult for the Liberals to hold Paterson unless there is a substantial
swing to them in NSW. The Labor candidate is Meryl Swanson, who has the advantage of already being well-known in the Hunter as a former local radio host.
She will be encouraged by Labor's strong showing in the Hunter and Port Stephens areas at the 2015 state election. The Liberal candidate, chosen very
late in the day, is Karen Howard, a member of Baldwin's staff and described on her facebook page as "a successful businesswoman."
These maps are the property of Adam Carr and may not be reproduced without his permission.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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