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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of New England, New South Wales
Northern New South Wales: rmidale, Inverell, Scone, Tamworth
Sitting member: Hon Barnaby Joyce (Nationals), elected 2013 (Senator 2005-13)
Enrolment at close of rolls: 109,580
2013 Nationals majority over independent: 14.5%
2013 Nationals majority over Labor: 20.7%
2016 notional Nationals majority over Labor 19.6%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Robert Walker
Online Direct Democracy |
2. Stan Colfax
Christian Democrats |
3. David Mailler
CountryMinded |
4. Peter Whelan
Liberal Democratic Party |
5. David Ewings
Australian Labor Party |
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6. Rob Taber
Independent |
7. Tony Windsor
Independent |
8. Hon Barnaby Joyce
The Nationals |
9. Mercurius Goldstein
Australian Greens |
10. Philip Cox
Independent |
2013 results
Statistics and history
New England has existed since Federation, and has changed very little in its boundaries or in its social and economic character since. It has always occupied the New England plateau, based on Armidale and Tamworth, and since New England is a major woolgrowing region it has always been a highly agricultural seat. It has the relatively low level of median family income and the very low proportion of people born in non English speaking countries typical of rural seats, although its proportion of people in professional occupations is higher than in most rural seats, possibly because of the presence of the University of New England and various regional government offices in Armidale.
New England has nearly always been a strongly conservative seat, and has elected a Labor member only twice, in 1906 and 1910. The farmers and woolgrowers of New England were among the earliest supporters of the Country Party, and the party and its successors the Nationals held the seat continuously from 1919 to 2001. From 1963 to 1998 it was held by Ian Sinclair, who was Nationals Leader from 1984 to 1989. The loss of the seat in 2001 to an independent, Tony Windsor, was therefore a great shock to the Nationals.
Tony Windsor was the independent state MP for Tamworth from 1991 and easily defeated the sitting National member for New England when he decided to switch to federal politics. He was re-elected without difficulty until 2013, when he retired and the seat was reclaimed by the Nationals.
Barnaby Joyce, Nationals MP for New England since 2013, was a Senator for Queensland from 2005 to 2013, before changing both House and state at the 2013 election - the first member of the federal Parliament to do both. The move was not as strange as it seemed. Joyce was born in Tamworth and went to university at UNE, so he could claim local roots. He has been Minister for Agriculture since 2013 and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources since 2015. In February 2016 he succeeded Warren Truss as Leader of the Nationals and Deputy Prime Minister.
In March 2016 Windsor announced that he would again contest New Enland at the 2016 election. Although Joyce had a majority of 14.5% over an unknown independent in 2013 (and 20.7% over Labor), Windsor will pose a serious threat, since most other candidates will preference him. If there is a swing against the Nationals in rural NSW, Joyce could well be defeated. The
2016 redistribution has slightly reduced the Nationals' majority over Labor, but that provides no indication of how well Joyce will fare against Windsor.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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