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| Australian federal election, 2016
Division of Dobell, New South Wales
New South Wales Central Coast: Bateau Bay, Kanwal, The Entrance, Wyong
Sitting member: Karen McNamara (Liberal), elected 2013
Enrolment at close of rolls: 111,736
2013 Liberal majority over Labor: 0.7%
2016 notional Labor majority over Liberal: 0.2%
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Candidates in ballot-paper order:
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1. Hadden Ervin
Christian Democrats |
2. Carter Edwards
One Nation |
3. Emma McBride
Australian Labor Party |
4. Karen McNamara
Liberal Party |
5. Abigail Boyd
Australian Greens |
6. Greg Stephenson
Independent |
7. Paul Baker
Independent |
2013 results
Statistics and history
Dobell was created in 1984, carved out of the seats of Robertson and Shortland. It is a mix of Sydney exurbia and tourism and retirement centres such as Bateau Bay, and has a high proportion of over-65s and a low proportion of people born in non English speaking countries and of people in professional occupations.
Dobell was a fairly safe seat for the rising Labor star Michael Lee until 1996, when he very nearly lost it in that year's Howard landslide. He recovered in 1998, but in 2001 he was unexpectedly beaten by the Liberals' Ken Ticehurst. Labor regained the seat in 2007, but soon wished they had not, since the new Labor member, Craig Thomson, proved a severe embarrassment.
During 2010 it emerged that Thomson had stolen large amounts of money from his former employer, the Health Services Union, with the connivance of other officials, and had spent the money on, among other things, prostitutes. Thomson denied the charges, but resigned from the Labor Party and contested Dobell as an independent in 2013, polling 4% of the vote. In 2014 he was convicted of theft.
Karen McNamara, Liberal MP for Dobell since 2013, is a former New South Wales public servant, serving in senior roles for over 20 years, most recently as Fraud Manager for WorkCover NSW. Despite the damage to Labor's reputation in Dobell caused by Thomson's criminal behaviour, McNamara won the seat with a margin of only 0.7%.
The 2016 redistribution has moved Dobell slightly northwards, transfering Liberal-voting Terrigal in the south to Robertson, while adding Labor-voting Goroke and Lake Haven, previously in Shortland, at the northern end. These changes have been enough to give Labor a notional majority of 0.2%. But given that McNamara will have the advantage of three years of incumbency in 2016, it is best to regard the seat as a Liberal marginal. It is a seat Labor must win in 2016. The Labor candidate will be Emma McBride, Deputy Director of Pharmacy for the Central Coast Local Health District, who was also Labor's candidate in 2013.
These maps are the property of Adam Carr and may not be reproduced without his permission.
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Prospective pendulum, showing all candidates
State and territory maps, showing new boundaries
The thirty seats that will decide the election
Other seats of interest
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